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Strong Bullish Momentum
Given the strong bullish momentum exhibited the past couple days and sustained buying throughout the day the current top is at risk of being tested as resistance with the possibility of a continuation breakout. If the advance can get above $4.37 there is a chance that the next higher target of $4.56 might be reached. There is also the possibility that the next higher target range, where there is the confluence of several indicators, could be reached.
Measured Moves Targets Higher
Nonetheless, before higher targets can be approached a sustained breakout above the $4.37 trend high needs to be successful. Certainly, the rally from the $2.99 swing low from late-January has made significant progress so far. As of today’s high, natural gas had advanced by as much as $1.33 or 44.6% in 12 days. However, the bull trend may be in its final stages before demand slows.
It is interesting to note that today’s advance stopped at a trendline that previously represented support. A successful test of the line as resistance looks to have completed today. Nonetheless, what happens next will be telling. Either resistance continues to be seen around the trendline or a breakout above it occurs.
History Shows Possibility of New Highs
A pattern emerges when examining six previous natural gas upswings (measured moves) since April 2024. For comparison, the percentage price change is considered. The largest gain was the first sharp rally off the April low. That measured move resulted in a 99.6% increase in the price of natural gas.
Otherwise, there were two measured moves showing close to a 61% advance, two showing about a 32% gain, and one around 41%. Since the current advance has exceeded that performance, it shows relative strength in the current rally. A 61% gain from the $2.99 low would complete at $4.81.
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