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Beyond the data, traders should monitor tariff-related developments and Fed commentary. Further tariff threats and hawkish Fed signals could pressure the DAX.
Near-Term Outlook
The DAX’s near-term trajectory in the coming sessions hinges on Friday’s private sector PMI data.
- Stronger PMI readings, higher employment, and rising prices could lower bets on ECB and Fed rate cuts, potentially pulling the DAX toward 22,000.
- Weaker PMI data and softer inflation pressures may support more dovish central bank rate paths, pushing the DAX above 23,000.
Beyond the data, geopolitical risks and trade developments remain key drivers.
- Rising US-EU trade tensions could weigh on the DAX, while signs of a trade resolution may drive the Index to record highs.
- Progress in Ukraine peace talks and increased EU defense spending may counter potential trade tariff risks.
As of Thursday morning, US futures pointed to a choppy session, with the Nasdaq 100 mini falling 97 points.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart
Despite Wednesday’s 1.80% slide, the DAX remains well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). However, the recent decline suggests increased volatility despite the broader bullish trend.
If the DAX breaks out from 22,500, it could move toward Wednesday’s record high of 22,935. A break above 22,935 may allow the bulls to target 23,000 next.
Conversely, a DAX fall to 22,350 could signal a fall toward 22,150. A drop below 22,350 would put the crucial 22,000 level into play.
With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.38, the DAX could return to the record high of 22,935 before entering overbought territory (RSI higher than 70).
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