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Will the EIA Report Spark a Price Rebound?
A bullish EIA report could reignite upward momentum, potentially breaking through Thursday’s high of $4.476. Should the rally gain enough traction, it may trigger short-covering with the next resistance zone targeted between $4.714 and $4.805. Conversely, a bearish report could pressure prices lower, with initial support at $4.020. Further downside might expose a deeper correction toward the short-term retracement level of $3.733.
How Is the Weather Impacting Natural Gas Demand?
NatGasWeather forecasts a frigid Arctic blast gripping the eastern half of the U.S. through Saturday, bringing rain, snow, and extreme cold with highs ranging from -0s to 40s and lows plunging to -20s to 30s. This is expected to sustain very strong national demand for natural gas through the weekend. However, a shift to warmer temperatures across much of the U.S. late this weekend into early next week could soften demand. Temperatures in these warmer areas are expected to rise to the 40s-70s, potentially easing market support.
What Are Analysts Expecting from Today’s EIA Report?
Market expectations for today’s EIA report indicate a storage draw of between 187 and 191 billion cubic feet (Bcf), a significant increase over the five-year average draw of 145 Bcf. The colder-than-normal conditions in the northern U.S. likely drove this strong withdrawal, partially offset by milder weather in the southern regions. The consensus estimate points to a draw of 191 Bcf, which, if realized, could provide the bullish catalyst needed for prices to retest earlier highs.
Market Forecast: Bullish or Bearish?
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