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At 11:41 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $70.43, up $0.03 or 0.00%.
Oil Market Awaits Clarity on Ukraine Peace Negotiations
Oil traders are closely monitoring developments in Ukraine as peace talks progress. An extraordinary summit of European Union leaders on March 6 will focus on additional support for Ukraine and potential European security guarantees. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s direct talks with Russia—without Ukraine or the EU present—add uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape.
While sanctions on Russian oil exports have disrupted global supply chains, a potential end to the war might not significantly boost Russian oil exports due to OPEC+ production curbs. However, geopolitical risk premiums could diminish, potentially applying downward pressure on crude prices, according to Harry Tchilinguiran, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.
Iraqi Oil Supply Could Add Further Pressure to Prices
A potential increase in oil supply from Iraq is another bearish signal for the oil market. Iraq is preparing to export 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan’s oilfields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline once operations resume. Though the exact timeline for resuming flows remains unclear, the additional supply could weigh on crude prices.
Analysts also highlight the broader supply outlook, with increased output expected from non-OPEC+ countries like the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects U.S. oil production to hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, contributing to a forecasted global supply growth of 1.6 million barrels per day.
OPEC+ Faces Tough Choices as Market Control Wanes
OPEC+ is walking a tightrope as it considers whether to ease production caps in April 2025. The group, which includes Russia, is currently holding back 5.85 million barrels per day—about 5.7% of global demand—to support prices. However, with supply growth expected to outpace demand by 500,000 barrels per day in 2025, OPEC+ risks losing market share to non-member producers.
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