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At 11:57 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $67.40, up $1.04 or +1.58%.
OPEC+ Supply Increase and Tariff Uncertainty Weigh on Prices
Oil prices are set for a nearly 4% weekly drop, with Brent down 3.8% and WTI falling 3.7%. The primary driver of the decline has been uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and its impact on demand, combined with an increase in production from major exporters. OPEC+ confirmed its plan to unwind voluntary output cuts, adding 138,000 barrels per day to the market.
This move drove crude below $69 earlier in the week, though Friday’s slight recovery followed comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reinforced Washington’s push to limit Iranian crude exports. Market participants also noted that price-sensitive buyers, particularly Chinese refiners, were stepping in to take advantage of lower Brent prices.
U.S. Policy Moves Add to Volatility
The Biden administration is reportedly considering at-sea inspections of Iranian oil tankers, a move that could immediately disrupt Tehran’s crude shipments. This follows broader efforts to restrict Iranian oil exports, which could tighten global supply.
Meanwhile, ongoing tariff disputes are fueling uncertainty. China has signaled possible stimulus measures to counter U.S. tariffs, raising hopes that oil demand could hold up better than expected. However, fears of trade retaliation still hang over the market, limiting upside potential.
Market Outlook: Bearish Bias With Potential for Supply Shocks
Despite Friday’s small rebound, crude oil remains under selling pressure. OPEC+ production increases, rising U.S. crude inventories, and demand concerns continue to weigh on prices. However, any sudden supply disruption—such as geopolitical conflict, a major unplanned outage, or U.S. sanctions on a key producer—could spark an immediate reversal.
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