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Currently, BTC is showing early signs of weakness following its recent surge. The price is trading at $81,142, down 13.93% from its recent high of $94,272. With the relative strength index (RSI) declining from overbought levels, historical precedents suggest that Bitcoin may continue to correct lower in the coming weeks.
The 50-week EMA, currently around $64,142, serves as a key downside target. This moving average has historically acted as a major support zone in bullish market structures, preventing deeper drawdowns.
If Bitcoin follows its previous market cycles, it could see a decline of approximately 30%- 40% from its local high, aligning with a potential test of the 50-week EMA in the $64,000-$65,000 range.
A break below this level would open the door to further downside toward the Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 0.618 retracement zone at $48,536, which has acted as a pivotal level in past corrections.
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