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Near-Term Outlook: Key Drivers
The DAX’s near-term outlook hinges on:
- German fiscal policy: Updates from Germany ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
- Trade tensions – US-EU and US-China trade developments.
- US retail sales – Trends in retail sales and sentiment toward the US economy.
Potential DAX Scenarios:
- Bullish Case: Easing trade tensions, fiscal stimulus, and dovish central bank policies could drive the DAX toward the record high of 23,476.
- Bearish Case: Fiscal stimulus resistance, escalating trade risks, or weak retail sales could drag the DAX toward 22,750.
As of Monday morning, the DAX futures were up 102 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini dropped 115 points, signaling diverging economic trends.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart:
The DAX sits well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting strong bullish momentum. However, tariff and fiscal-driven volatility introduces short-term downside risks.
A breakout above Friday’s high of 23,050 would support a move toward the all-time high of 23,476. A return to 23,476 may enable the bulls to target 23,750.
Conversely, if the DAX breaks below 22,750, it may test support at 22,500. A fall through 22,500 would bring 22,000 and the 50-day EMA into play.
With the RSI at 57.34, the DAX remains below overbought levels (above 70), signaling room for a climb to its all-time high of 23,476.
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