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Fed Poised to Hold Rates; Market Watches for Powell’s Tone
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a near certainty that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The dot plot, which outlines policymakers’ expectations for future rate moves, will be a key focus. Economists at Wells Fargo anticipate no changes to the median projection for 2025 but caution that Powell’s remarks could hint at potential adjustments if inflationary pressures resurface.
Powell’s press conference will also be closely scrutinized, particularly for any commentary on the Biden administration’s tariff policies and their potential impact on inflation and economic growth. Market volatility could increase if Powell signals concerns over policy uncertainty or weakening consumer resilience.
Retail Sales and Housing Data Could Signal Economic Trends
February’s retail sales report will be a critical data point for assessing consumer strength. A 0.9% decline in January raised concerns about a potential slowdown, but economists at Jefferies suggest that consumer spending remains robust for now. A stronger-than-expected rebound in February could reinforce confidence in economic stability, while a weak reading may fuel recession fears.
The housing sector will also be in focus with several key reports, including homebuilder confidence, housing starts, and existing home sales. Rising construction costs due to tariffs on steel and aluminum could impact builder sentiment and supply, influencing home prices and sales activity.
Nvidia’s GTC Conference and Major Earnings Reports on Deck
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