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Will Prices Break Higher or Retest Support?
April futures saw light volume ahead of Thursday’s contract expiration, inching lower after shedding 7.4 cents in Tuesday’s session. The selloff came as traders reacted to forecasts projecting light demand through the end of the month. If prices clear the $3.924 resistance, short-covering could drive a sharp move higher. Conversely, failure to hold the 50-day moving average near $3.790 risks a drop toward the recent bottom at $3.742, with a breakdown below that level potentially accelerating losses.
Weather-Driven Demand Remains Subdued
From March 24 to 30, U.S. weather patterns are expected to generate limited heating and cooling demand. Rain and snow will persist across parts of the country, but temperatures will remain mild overall—ranging from 30s to 60s in the north and 50s to 80s in the south. The forecast suggests low residential and commercial gas use, weakening near-term support for prices.
LNG and Production Provide a Floor—for Now
Despite soft demand, U.S. production and LNG feed gas flows remain supportive. LNG volumes continue to hold strong, and production has yet to show significant increases that would materially pressure supply-demand balances. These factors are helping to prevent a steeper drop in prices, at least for the moment.
Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook
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