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Working gas in storage stood at 1,707 Bcf as of March 14, 10% below the five-year average and 27% below levels seen this time last year. However, the current pace of withdrawals—22% above seasonal norms—has not been enough to reverse the bearish tone as expectations shift toward early refill season. A Desk survey of analysts offered a wide range of projections for today’s report, from a 24 Bcf draw to a 12 Bcf build, with a median estimate of a modest 1 Bcf injection.
Weather and Technicals Reinforce Downside Risk
With weather outlooks holding mild for the balance of March, demand remains capped. This softness in fundamentals aligns with bearish technical signals, especially as the prompt-month contract hovers below the 50-day average. A firm breakdown below $3.732 could expose the market to deeper losses toward the key pivot area at $3.350.
While a short-covering bounce above $3.924 could occur, it is unlikely to flip the broader trend. Traders appear hesitant to push prices higher without a more compelling bullish catalyst, particularly as the April contract approaches expiry.
Bearish Near-Term Outlook Holds
Unless today’s storage report surprises with a sizable draw, the path of least resistance remains lower. A build near or above expectations would reinforce the early injection narrative and keep pressure on May futures. With mild weather, bearish storage trends, and technical support breaking down, the market leans bearish in the short term.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
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