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Another thing that I would keep in mind is that the situation in Europe isn’t exactly clear right now, because there are questions to be asked about whether or not the Russians will continue to supply gas in the future. My thought is that sooner or later, Russian gas will start to flow heavily into central Europe, because quite frankly the Europeans can either do that, or pay very expensive shipping cost for LNG to come from the United States.
Quite frankly, it just doesn’t make sense, and it is worth noting that during the Ukraine conflict, we have still seen Russian gas going into the European Union. In other words, a lot of the rhetoric about Russian gas is just simply theater. Here is a fun fact: the European Union has spent more money on Russian gas during the war in Ukraine than they have supporting the Ukrainians. Money talks, people lie.
With that being said, I think between the temperatures rising in the United States and Europe, and of course sooner or later somebody is going to need to come to a conclusion in the Ukraine war, it is only a matter of time before we see markets start to fall. While I do recognize that inflation will keep prices elevated a little higher than usual, I suspect that the cyclical trade of natural gas falling into the summer is still what most traders will be looking for.
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