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Meanwhile, tariff developments will be crucial for the DAX’s near-term trajectory. A 25% tariff on all autos imported into the US and reciprocal levies would likely trigger a flight to safety, hitting German exporters. Conversely, signs that Trump may scale back tariff plans could fuel another DAX rally.
Near-Term Outlook: Key Drivers
The DAX’s direction hinges on three primary drivers: the US labor market, tariff headlines, and central bank signals.
Potential DAX Scenarios:
- Bullish Case: Easing trade tensions, upbeat US labor market data, or dovish central bank forward guidance may drive the DAX toward 23,000.
- Bearish Case: Higher tariffs, weak US data, or more hawkish central bank stances could drag the DAX toward 22,000.
As of Wednesday morning, the DAX futures were down 54 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini dropped 34 points, signaling a volatile session ahead.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart:
After Tuesday’s rally, the DAX remains above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), maintaining a bullish technical bias. However, tariff-driven volatility poses short-term downside risks.
- Upside Target: A break above 22,750 would support a climb toward 23,000. A sustained move through 23,000 could enable the bulls to target the record high of 23,476.
- Downside risk: A drop below 22,500 could expose the 50-day EMA. A decisive break below the 50-day EMA could bring 22,000 into play.
With the RSI at 48.48, the DAX remains above oversold territory (below 30), leaving room for a drop to 22,000.
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