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Bitcoin Rebounds on Tariff Developments
XRP’s rebound mirrored a broader crypto rally as bitcoin (BTC) responded to Trump’s tariff moves. Despite the uptick, BTC remains well below the level seen before Trump’s initial threats of levies. Since the January 31 high of $105,993, BTC has trended lower as markets considered levies on steel, aluminum, autos, and the sweeping 10% tariff on non-retaliating nations—plus the significant 125% tariff on China.
Higher import costs could fuel inflation, potentially leading to a more hawkish Fed stance. This could weigh on private consumption, which contributes over 60% to US GDP, and raise recession concerns.
Market intelligence platform Santiment warned of elevated market risk, stating:
“Trader sentiments have predictably flipped bullish with the US 90-day pause on tariffs. Crypto may rally for a bit as retail catches up with the news, but beware of the high level of FOMO and buying on ‘kick the can down the road’ news on a topic that has remained unresolved.”
BTC-Spot ETFs Outflows Suggest Cautious Optimism
Tariff developments also influenced the US BTC-spot ETF market as institutional investors considered Trump’s policy shift. According to Farside Investors, flows for April 9 included:
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $33.8 million.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net inflows of $6.7 million.
Excluding BlackRock’s (BLK) pending iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) data, total US BTC-spot ETF outflows reached $37.5 million, marking outflows in eight of the past nine sessions.
BTC Price Outlook: Scenarios to Monitor
On April 9, BTC rallied 8.27%, reversing Tuesday’s 3.64% loss to close at $82,594.
BTC scenarios include:
- Bearish Scenario: Tariff hikes, hotter US inflation (April 10), a hawkish Fed stance, extended BTC-spot ETF outflows, or opposition to the Bitcoin Act could drag BTC toward $70,000.
- Bullish Scenario: Cooling US inflation, dovish Fed signals, progress on trade, bipartisan support for the Bitcoin Act, and sustained ETF inflows could lift BTC toward $109,312.
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