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Explore expert forecasts and trade setups for USD/JPY in our latest market analysis here.
Shifting focus to the Australian Dollar, trade developments, and potential stimulus measures from Beijing influence AUD/USD trends.
AUD/USD Outlook: Tariffs and China in Focus
Turning to AUD/USD, market attention stays on US-China trade tensions and Beijing’s potential stimulus measures. With a trade-to-GDP ratio exceeding 50% and more than one-fifth of Australian jobs tied to trade, deteriorating global trade conditions pose significant downside risks.
Importantly, stimulus measures from Beijing could mitigate tariff risks, potentially boosting Aussie dollar demand.
China, which accounts for one-third of Australia’s exports, is central to AUD/USD sentiment. Weaker Chinese demand could influence the RBA’s policy outlook. While RBA Governor Michele Bullock said on Thursday, April 10, that it was too early to assess the impact of tariffs, expectations for a May 2025 RBA rate cut have risen, impacting the AUD/USD pair.
Potential AUD/USD Moves:
- Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: A de-escalation in the US-China trade war, risk-on sentiment, Beijing stimulus, or hawkish RBA commentary may drive the AUD/USD pair toward the 50-day EMA, potentially reaching $0.63.
- Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: An escalation in the US-China trade war, risk-off sentiment, or dovish RBA signals could drag the AUD/USD pair toward the April 9 low of $0.59132.
For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, visit our detailed reports here.
Australian Dollar Daily Outlook: US Economy in Focus
In the US session, upbeat economic data could temper bets on multiple Fed rate cuts. A more hawkish Fed stance could widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar, pushing the AUD/USD pair toward $0.60.
Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could fuel recession concerns, supporting a more dovish Fed rate path. In this scenario, a narrower rate differential may drive the AUD/USD pair toward the 50-day EMA and $0.63.
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