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While Wednesday’s rally pushed prices above a former bottom at $59.31, they failed to clear the critical $63.70 pivot—an upside barrier that must be broken to unlock further gains toward the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $68.65 and $69.73, respectively.
At 11:15 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.75, down $1.60 or -2.57%.
Escalating US-China Trade War Weighs on Oil Demand Projections
President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff pause for most countries briefly boosted crude, but the move excluded China, where tariffs jumped to 125% from 104%. In retaliation, Beijing imposed an 84% levy on U.S. goods. The tit-for-tat escalation deepens uncertainty over global demand, particularly from China—one of the largest crude importers.
Analysts from Panmure Liberum and UBS emphasized the increased risk to oil demand growth, noting that price weakness may be required to rebalance potential oversupply if consumption falters.
Supply Headlines Offer Limited Relief to Bearish Sentiment
News of the Keystone pipeline shutdown due to a spill in North Dakota offered limited support, with the operator declaring force majeure as assessments continued. Meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium resumed loading at one Black Sea mooring after a temporary halt.
Yet, bearish sentiment was reinforced by a surprise U.S. inventory build—crude stocks rose by 2.6 million barrels last week, far above the 1.4 million barrel consensus, according to the EIA.
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