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Are Milder Temperatures Eroding Seasonal Demand?
Cooler-than-normal temperatures briefly lifted heating demand in the Northeast and Great Lakes, but that support appears short-lived. Most forecasts now show warming trends across the West, South, and Central U.S., capping residential and commercial consumption. National demand is expected to drift lower heading into the second half of April, with power burn not yet ramping up enough to compensate for the broader softness.
Do Storage Builds Reflect Weak Underlying Demand?
Recent EIA data confirms bearish sentiment, with consecutive injections of +29 Bcf and +57 Bcf—well above seasonal norms. Though total storage remains slightly below the five-year average, the pace of injections is a warning sign. It points to lackluster demand relative to available supply, and suggests the market could be entering refill season with more comfort than previously anticipated.
Can LNG Exports Continue to Anchor Prices?
LNG export flows remain a firm support base, with net deliveries to terminals reaching as high as 16.6 Bcf/day—up over 15% week-over-week. That said, even this strength hasn’t been enough to drive prices higher. Export growth helps tighten balances in the background, but near-term demand drivers on the domestic side remain too soft to turn sentiment bullish.
Are Trade Disputes a Growing Risk?
Trade tensions have returned as a risk variable. U.S.–China disputes escalated further, with tariffs raised on both sides—China’s now at 125% on U.S. goods. While the market found some temporary relief from a tariff pause affecting other nations, traders remain cautious. LNG demand from key Asian buyers is being questioned, adding another layer of uncertainty to forward demand assumptions.
Market Forecast: Bearish Bias with Limited Upside Drivers
With supply holding steady, early storage builds outpacing historical norms, and national demand expected to decline further, the near-term outlook remains bearish. LNG exports and longer-term storage tightness provide some fundamental support, but without a clear demand catalyst, downside pressure is likely to persist heading into the latter half of April.
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