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Investors should also monitor BoJ commentary. BoJ Governor Kazuo Uyeda recently flagged elevated uncertainty, fueling speculation about a near-term policy hold. Remarks on tariffs and their impact on Japan’s economy, inflation, and policy outlook would influence USD/JPY trends.
USD/JPY: Key Scenarios to Watch
Safe-haven flows into the Yen could weigh on USD/JPY, while improving risk sentiment may lift the pair.
- Bullish Yen Scenario: US-China trade conflict, heightened risk aversion, or hawkish BoJ signals may drag USD/JPY toward the 140.309 support level.
- Bearish Yen Scenario: Trade de-escalation, risk-on flows, or dovish BoJ remarks could push USD/JPY above 145.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook: Retail Sales and Fed in Focus
Later in the US session, US retail sales figures will influence June Fed rate cut bets. Economists expect a 1.4% monthly increase in March after a 0.2% rise in February.
A sharper increase could fuel demand-driven inflation, ease recession fears, and support a less dovish Fed rate path. In this scenario, the USD/JPY pair could move toward 145, a crucial resistance level.
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