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See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Resilience Amid Escalating Tariffs
While XRP slipped, bitcoin (BTC) trended higher despite an escalation in the US-China trade war. The US government announced 245% tariffs on select Chinese imports after China hiked levies on US imports to 125%. According to the White House press release, US President Trump also signed an Executive Order ‘launching an investigation into the national security risks posed by US reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products.’
US markets tumbled on April 16, with the Nasdaq Composite Index closing down 3.07%.
US BTC-Spot ETFs Face Outflows
Rising tensions dented institutional demand for BTC ETFs. According to Farside Investors, -key US BTC-spot ETF market flows for April 16 included:
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net outflows of $113.8 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $113.2 million.
Excluding data from BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), total US BTC-spot ETF outflows reached $201.7 million. While avoiding a drop below $80,000, Wednesday’s outflows left BTC struggling below the crucial $85,000 level.
BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers
On April 16, BTC gained 0.39%, partially reversing Tuesday’s 1.09% loss to close at $84,032. Despite the US market sell-off, BTC avoided sub-$80,000 for five straight sessions.
Near-term price direction depends on the following scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario: Rising geopolitical tensions, weak US economic data, hawkish Fed rhetoric, spot ETF outflows, and legislative delays could send BTC toward $75,000.
- Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, strong US stats, dovish Fed chatter, bipartisan support for the Bitcoin Act, and ETF inflows may lift BTC toward $90,000.
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