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Explore expert USD/JPY forecasts and setups in our latest analysis.
AUD/USD Outlook: Tariffs and the RBA Rate Path
For the Aussie dollar, tariff-related developments will influence AUD/USD trends and potentially the RBA rate path. Aussie labor market data released on April 17 showed an unemployment rise from 4.0% in February to 4.1% in March as the participation rate edged higher. The data offered little support for near-term rate cut expectations.
However, growth demand uncertainties could stall the AUD/USD’s resurgence. With a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50%, a tariff impact on global supply chains and trade terms may affect the Aussie economy. In this scenario, the RBA could cut rates earlier to bolster the economy, given that 20% of the workforce is in trade-related jobs.
A more dovish RBA rate stance could weigh on Aussie dollar demand, while a wait-and-see approach could drive the AUD/USD pair higher. Given China accounts for one-third of Aussie exports, US-China trade developments and Beijing’s stimulus plans are critical to AUD/USD trends.
AUD/USD: Market-Moving Factors
- Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Rising US-China trade tensions or hawkish RBA rhetoric may drive the AUD/USD pair above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), targeting $0.65.
- Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Easing tariffs or dovish RBA signals could drag the pair below the $0.63623 support level, bringing the 50-day EMA into play.
For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, See our top trading signals for AUD/USD amid tariff tensions here.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: Fed Policy in Focus
In the US session, falling bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate cut could pressure AUD/USD, widening the US-Aussie rate differential in the US dollar’s favor. A more hawkish Fed stance may send the AUD/USD pair below $0.63.
However, rising expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts to bolster the US economy. could pressure the US dollar. In this scenario, the AUD/USD pair may move toward $0.65.
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