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Like GMS, we find good alignment with non-commercial traders’ Bitcoin Futures positioning and our EW count, which increases our confidence in Bitcoin’s next move. Back in September 2023, NCTs were just a little bit more long than currently, but it marked a great low and the start of a powerful rally: the 3rd of a 3rd wave. Besides, it is worth noting that the NCT had acquired a significant net short position just before the November 2024 elections, which played out well given the current three-month-long ~33% correction.
But it took over two months before they were proven right, and thus this data does not tell us when a move will happen or how far and long it will take. We need the EW and, for example, a forward offset GMS for that. Our multi-method approach sets us apart from most EW-based pundits, increasing our odds of providing accurate and reliable forecasts. Besides, we now have an additional line of evidence pointing towards a rally instead of a crash contingent on Bitcoin holding above at least $69,000.
*Used with permission from McClellan Financial Publications
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