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Explore expert USD/JPY forecasts and setups in our latest analysis.
AUD/USD Outlook: PMIs Beat Forecasts
Australia’s private sector PMIs beat forecasts on April 23, signaling underlying economic strength and lending support to AUD/USD.
The Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.1 in March to 51.7 in April, while the Services PMI slipped from 51.6 to 51.4 in April.
According to the April survey:
- New business rose at the most marked pace in three years, boosted by domestic demand as tariffs hit overseas orders.
- Firms increased staffing levels to meet rising demand.
- Higher wage, material, and energy prices sent input prices higher, though service sector cost inflation crucially limited the increase.
- Manufacturers hiked selling prices at the fastest pace in over two years, pushing output price inflation higher.
The combination of resilient growth, a tighter labor market, and rising inflation may temper bets on an RBA rate cut in May.
Jinhyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented:
“Subdued exports also reflected the impact of higher US tariffs following the announcements so far. Manufacturers also reported an intensification of cost pressures in April amid foreign exchange fluctuations, opting to pass on the rise in cost burdens to clients. Overall selling price inflation was the highest in nine months, and will be a trend worth monitoring given ongoing trade uncertainties.”
AUD/USD: Market-Moving Factors
- Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: A de-escalation in US-China trade tensions or hawkish RBA rhetoric may push the AUD/USD pair above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), targeting $0.65.
- Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Renewed tariff threats or dovish RBA signals could pull the pair below the $0.63623 support level. A drop below $0.63623 may potentially test the 50-day EMA.
For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, see our top trading signals for AUD/USD amid tariff tensions here.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: PMIs and Fed Speakers in Focus
In the US session, PMI results and Fed commentary will influence US-Aussie interest rate differentials. Weaker-than-expected US private sector PMI data may boost Fed rate cut bets, narrowing the rate differential. In this scenario, the AUD/USD pair may climb above the 200-day EMA and target $0.65.
On the other hand, upbeat PMI data and Fed calls to delay rate cuts may widen the rate differential. A wider differential could pull the pair below the $0.6323 support level and potentially sub-$0.63.
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