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The correction underway is retracing the rally from the recent low of $2956.56 to the high at $3500.20. The first key level on the downside is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $3228.38, with stronger support near the 61.8% level at $3164.23. Technically, the main support remains the 50-day moving average at $3034.30. The recent price action doesn’t yet reverse the overall uptrend, but it signals fading momentum as buyers hesitate to chase strength above $3400.
A softer stance from President Trump also contributed to the pullback. Markets responded to his remarks backing off threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and signaling openness to reduced tariffs on Chinese imports. This softened investor demand for gold as a hedge against policy and geopolitical risk. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo commented that Trump’s tone “eased market concerns” and briefly reduced the appeal of gold as a safe haven.
Fundamentals Remain Firm as Institutions Raise Forecasts
Despite the near-term pullback, institutional sentiment toward gold remains bullish. UBS maintains a target of $3500/oz, while Goldman Sachs recently hiked its 2025 year-end forecast to $3700/oz, citing inflation risks and macro uncertainty. JPMorgan forecasts an average of $3675/oz in Q4, expecting prices to exceed $4000/oz next year on persistent demand from investors and central banks, averaging 710 tonnes per quarter.
Gold Prices Projection: Correction Within Bullish Trend
While the market is correcting from overheated conditions, the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Technical selling could extend toward $3228 or $3164, levels that will test “buy-the-dip” appetite.
With inflation risks, global policy uncertainty, and strong institutional demand in play, the pullback is likely temporary. Traders should view this dip as a retracement within a broader uptrend, keeping the gold prices forecast tilted bullish above key moving average support.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
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