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Explore expert USD/JPY forecasts and setups in our latest analysis.
AUD/USD Forecast: Global Trade and the RBA
Meanwhile, the AUD/USD also faces pivotal drivers as global trade tensions evolve. A swift end to US tariffs on Australia and easing US-China trade tensions could be crucial. Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50%, with China accounting for one-third of Aussie exports. An extended global trade war and steep tariffs on China could undermine terms of trade, the Australian economy, and Aussie dollar demand.
The RBA could respond by cutting rates next week and signaling further policy easing to bolster the economy. Last week, the IMF cut Australia’s 2025 growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.6%. It lowered China’s growth forecast from 4.6% to 4%.
However, a US-Australia trade deal and progress toward a US-China deal could ease concerns over Australia’s economic outlook and lift demand for the Aussie dollar.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
- Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Increasing US-China tensions or dovish RBA commentary may push AUD/USD below the $0.63623 support level.
- Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Easing US-China trade tensions or a hawkish RBA stance could drive the pair above the 200-day EMA.
For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, see our top trading signals for AUD/USD amid tariff tensions here.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Manufacturing in Focus
In the US session, upbeat US manufacturing sector data may ease recession fears. A less dovish Fed stance could widen the US-Aussie rate differential, potentially pulling AUD/USD toward $0.63.
Conversely, a weaker manufacturing report could drive Fed rate cut bets, potentially sending AUD/USD toward $0.65.
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