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Meanwhile, US economic indicators highlighted the effect of US tariffs on the economy, raising hopes for a Fed rate cut.
US Consumer Sentiment Slumps
The US CB Consumer Confidence Index slid from 93.9 in March to 86 in April, fueling recession fears. The pullback in consumer sentiment could signal a marked drop in spending, dampening inflationary pressures and impacting the US economy. A softer inflation and economic outlook could enable the Fed to cut interest rates, bolstering demand for risk assets.
Labor market data also supported a more dovish Fed stance. JOLTS job openings fell from 7.48 million in February to 7.192 million in March. A weaker labor market could slow wage growth and affect consumer sentiment.
Tuesday’s data raised the odds of a US economic recession. According to Polymarket, the odds of a 2025 US recession increased to 64%, up from 27% on Trump’s Inauguration Day and near the April 7 peak of 66%.
China Private Sector PMIs Send Early Warning Signals
On April 30, investor focus shifted to China amid rising concerns over the effect of tariffs on demand. The NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in March to 49 in April, crucially falling below the neutral 50 level. Services sector activity also waned. The NBS Non Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in April, down from 50.8 in March.
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.4 in April, down from 51.2 in March. The April report revealed a drop in overseas orders and job cuts. Deteriorating labor market conditions could affect domestic consumption and pressure Beijing to deliver fresh stimulus.
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