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After defending key support at $3.103 for three consecutive sessions, the June contract accelerated higher, targeting the 50% retracement of the $4.430 to $3.035 range at $3.733. Traders will watch this level closely as it represents a natural area for profit-taking or new short positions.
A confirmed close above $3.733 would signal further strength, potentially setting up a move toward the 50-day moving average at $3.966 and the short-term pivot at $4.062.
On the downside, minor support now stands at $3.354, with firmer backing at the 200-day average.
Inventory Build Offers Mixed Signals
Thursday’s EIA report delivered a 107 Bcf build for the week ending April 25, slightly under consensus expectations of 109 Bcf but nearly double the five-year average of 58 Bcf. While the year-over-year storage deficit remains notable at -17.8%, inventories now sit slightly above the five-year average at +0.2%.
This data supports a neutral-to-bullish near-term view but highlights that U.S. supply remains adequate heading into summer. In Europe, weaker-than-normal storage levels—39% full compared to the seasonal norm of 49%—may lend some longer-term support to LNG export demand.
Weather Remains a Headwind for Demand
Short-term weather forecasts are offering limited support for prices, with the May 1–7 outlook calling for light national demand. Most of the U.S. will see comfortable temperatures in the 60s–80s, with cooler 50s across parts of the Midwest and Plains. Hotter conditions in the far South could spark localized cooling demand, but overall, the setup suggests subdued consumption into next week.
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