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The bearish outlook hardened over the weekend, as OPEC+ officially agreed to increase production again in June, bringing total supply growth over two months to more than 800,000 barrels per day. This decision, led by Saudi Arabia and backed by eight key members, caught the market off guard and exceeded most analyst forecasts.
Combined with weak demand growth and constrained investment across the sector, the market now faces a clear oversupply threat. Fundamentals point to a bearish oil prices forecast in the near term unless there’s a marked improvement in economic conditions or a surprise policy reversal from OPEC+.
Technically, the downside momentum is strong with nearby targets $54.48 and $52.45. In the upside, the nearest resistance is $59.67, followed by $63.06.
The market will have to overcome $64.87 to shift momentum to the upside, but the long-term trend will remain bearish until buyers can overtake the 52-week moving average at $68.51.
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