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For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Dips Ahead of Crucial GENIUS Act Vote
Bitcoin (BTC) joined XRP and the broader market in negative territory on May 19. Investor caution about the GENIUS Act vote overshadowed the effect of net inflows into the US BTC-spot ETF market, typically bullish for BTC price trends.
According to Farside Investors, US BTC-spot ETF issuers could potentially extend the inflow streak to four sessions on May 19. Key inflow trends included:
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $188.1 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net outflows of $155.3 million.
Excluding BlackRock’s (BLK) pending iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) data, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total inflows of $361.5 million. IBIT remains the key player in the BTC-spot ETF market. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented:
“Also notable leaderboard action: IBIT has climbed up to 6th spot and is now nearly double the inflow into SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) which has slid to 17th, despite gold doubling bitcoin’s performance YTD altho that prob won’t last.”
IBIT had net inflows of $8,304.48 million year-to-date compared with inflows of $4,418.36 million into GLD.
BTC Price Outlook: Monitor Capitol Hill and ETF Trends
BTC fell 0.85% on May 19, partially reversing Sunday’s 3.14% rally to close at $105,573.
BTC’s short-term outlook depends on several key drivers: the GENIUS Act vote, US-China trade developments, macroeconomic data, and ETF inflows or outflows.
Potential scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario: Rising US-China tensions, a failed GENIUS Act vote, US recession fears, and ETF outflows. Bearish sentiment could send BTC toward $90,000.
- Bullish Scenario: Easing trade friction, positive US economic data, GENIUS Act passes in Congress, and ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment could drive BTC above the record high of $109,312.
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