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AUD/USD in Focus: Wage Data in Spotlight
On May 21, Aussie wage growth data from the ABS will likely influence AUD/USD trends after Tuesday’s RBA rate cut. The ABS will release March’s employee earnings data, offering early insights into wage growth trends and their potential impact on consumer spending and inflation.
In December, total wages and salaries paid by employers fell 0.7% month-on-month but rose 5.7% year-on-year. Rising wages could fuel consumer spending and inflationary pressures, potentially curbing multiple RBA rate cut bets. Conversely, softer wage growth may support a more dovish RBA stance. On May 20, the RBA cut interest rates and noted softer wage growth, signaling further rate cuts.
Beyond the data, US-China trade headlines also require consideration.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
- Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Rising US-China tensions, weak wage growth, or dovish RBA signals may push AUD/USD to $0.63623, below the 200- and 50-day EMAs.
- Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Easing US-China trade tensions, rising wages, Beijing stimulus, or hawkish RBA rhetoric could drive the pair toward the May 14 high of $0.65008.
Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: Fed Chatter and Rate Differentials
Later today, hawkish Fed comments may widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A less dovish Fed rate path could weigh on AUD/USD, possibly dropping below the 200-day EMA. A drop below the 200-day EMA would bring the 50-day EMA and the $0.63623 support level into play. However, growing support for a Q3 Fed rate cut may narrow the rate differential, lifting the pair toward $0.64500.
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