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I was surprised inflation was just 0.2% for July, given the 0.4% forecast predicted by the\u00a0Cleveland Fed<\/a>. Gasoline was up 0.2% for the month, which was lower than expected. I suspect energy prices could jump in August.<\/p>\n Weekly jobless claims jumped to 248,000. This is a crucial data set I\u2019ll be watching over the coming months. A breakout above the 265,000 high set in June would establish an uptrend and support a recession.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In Q2, the coincident index was up +0.8% (annual rate), but we have a massive divergence with the leading index, which contracted by -9.3%.\u00a0Deviations like this only happen at major economic turning points, according to David Rosenberg:<\/p>\n Over the weekend, a Ukrainian naval drone, loaded with almost 1000 lbs. of TNT, targeted a major\u00a0Russian oil tanker, \u201cthe Sig.\u201d\u00a0Peter Zeihan suggests that these long-range maritime drones hold groundbreaking implications, presenting a risk to vital assets in the Black Sea.<\/p>\n The Black Sea is paramount for Russia\u2019s maritime transport, exporting approximately 3 million barrels of crude oil daily and substantial volumes of ore and grains. Ukraine has issued a two-week notice for civilian ships to leave the area. After this period, any vessel entering or exiting Russian ports could become a target.<\/p>\n It remains unclear whether Ukraine can repeat its success, but if it does, Russia could lose its dominance, potentially disrupting 3 million barrels of daily oil production. August could mark a significant turning point, potentially triggering chaos across energy markets.<\/p>\n Gold<\/a> continues to slip, and there is no telling when or where prices will stabilize. It all hinges on interest rates (see bottom panel). Worst case scenario, prices could revisit the $1830 area in September to complete a C-wave.<\/p>\n Note: During the third quarter of last year, 10-year Treasury yields surged from 2.6% to 4.0% pushing gold lower by $200. If the 10-year rallies to 5.0% (currently 4.0%), that could be the catalyst that takes gold down to the $1830 C-wave target.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Silver<\/a> is near-term oversold, and we are within striking distance of the June low. If prices break lower, my best guess for support is around $21.25.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Platinum<\/a> undercut the June low, but I\u2019m unsure if that\u2019s enough to trigger a bottom. Prices would have to close above $960 to support a low.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Miners<\/a> are looking for support near the June lows, but at this point, I don\u2019t think prices will hold. Ideal support comes in around $26.50 if prices break decisively lower.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Oil is attempting to breakout above resistance around $83.50. Near-term prices are overbought.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The divergence between economic indicators is highly supportive of a recession. I have no idea when it starts, but I\u2019m confident it\u2019s coming.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Precious metals may languish into September, but once long-term yields peak, I expect a powerful wave III rally to new all-time highs.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit\u00a0here<\/a>. For YouTube content, click\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nInitial Claims<\/h2>\n
Economic Indicator Divergence Signals Recession<\/h2>\n
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Ukraine Update<\/h2>\n
Commodity Update<\/h2>\n
Gold Price Forecast<\/h3>\n
Silver Price Forecast<\/h3>\n
Platinum Price Forecast<\/h3>\n
GDX Price Forecast<\/h3>\n
WTIC Price Forecast<\/h3>\n
Conclusion<\/h2>\n