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Last week\u2019s optimism in the oil market swiftly turned into this week\u2019s anxiety, as both Brent<\/a> and WTI<\/a> benchmarks took a nosedive, recording their worst weekly performances since March. Brent slipped 11.6%, while WTI fell around 9%. The freefall was largely triggered by a sell-off in the U.S. bond market, raising red flags about a potential global economic slowdown and a subsequent decline in fuel (gasoline) demand.<\/p>\n Bond investors are increasingly alarmed by the U.S. government\u2019s burgeoning budget deficit, which is pushing Treasury prices to 17-year lows. This ripples through to the oil market, given the U.S. status as the world\u2019s leading oil consumer. Meanwhile, JPMorgan expects a modest but slower growth in oil demand for Q4 2023. On the flip side, the National Australia Bank views the recent price dip as temporary and forecasts a supply deficit this quarter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Despite the week\u2019s turmoil, oil prices showed modest recovery on Friday. December Brent futures rose 0.17% to settle at $84.21, while November U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 0.22% to $82.49.<\/p>\n Today, all eyes will be on the U.S. monthly jobs report<\/a>, while next week\u2019s data\u2014ranging from Friday\u2019s non-farm payroll to U.S. CPI<\/a> and China\u2019s economic numbers\u2014will be pivotal in shaping the market\u2019s direction. Recent reports have indicated a slowdown in the U.S. services sector and a probable contraction in the eurozone economy, both of which have capped the oil market\u2019s rally.<\/p>\n Despite the recent volatility and sell-off, the short-term outlook for the oil market appears cautiously bullish. Market participants are likely to focus on dwindling global oil stockpiles, with expectations that Brent could rebound to levels above $90 per barrel once attention shifts back to supply constraints.<\/p>\n Daily Light Crude Oil futures currently trade at 82.45, precariously positioned below the 50-Day moving average of 84.89 but comfortably above the 200-Day average of 77.53. This sets a complex stage: short-term bearish signals counterbalanced by a more extended bullish backdrop.<\/p>\n With the current price closely flirting with the minor support level at 82.68, there\u2019s a critical point to watch. Moreover, there\u2019s a decent upside runway before hitting minor and main resistance levels at 92.49 and 97.67, respectively.<\/p>\n Weighing these factors, the prevailing market sentiment leans cautiously bullish. This condition is likely to remain intact unless the 200-Day moving average is violated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nMacro Factors and Supply-Demand Equation<\/h2>\n
A Glimpse of Recovery<\/h2>\n
Economic Indicators to Watch<\/h2>\n
Short-Term Outlook<\/h2>\n
Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n