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However, retail sales trends can also impact inflation and the Fed\u2019s policy outlook. Economists forecast retail sales to rise 0.6% month-on-month in December, down slightly from November\u2019s 0.7% increase. Higher-than-expected figures could fuel demand-driven inflation, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. Conversely, weaker data may support bets on the first half of the 2025 Fed rate cut.<\/p>\n
Other stats include the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index data. However, these will likely play second fiddle to the labor market and retail sales reports.<\/p>\n
The DAX\u2019s near-term trend hinges on US economic data, central bank forward guidance, and US tariff developments. Expectations of a more hawkish Fed rate path or US tariff threats could pull the DAX toward 20,000. However, weaker data and the absence of tariff-related news could drive the DAX to new highs on central bank rate cut expectations.<\/p>\n
As of Thursday morning, the Nasdaq-mini futures jumped 155 points, driving early demand for DAX-listed stocks.<\/p>\n
Following Wednesday\u2019s breakout, the DAX remains well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs<\/a>), sending bullish price signals.<\/p>\n If the DAX returns to Thursday morning\u2019s record high of 20,675, the Index could target 20,750 next. A break above 20,750 would bring 21,000 into sight.<\/p>\n Conversely, a DAX break below 20,500 could signal a drop toward 20,000. A fall through 20,000 would bring the 50-day EMA into play.<\/p>\n With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.47, the DAX could target 20,675 before entering overbought territory (RSI higher than 70).<\/p>\n