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Explore in-depth USD\/JPY trade setups and expert forecasts here<\/a>.<\/p>\n For the Australian dollar, US tariff developments will continue influencing AUD\/USD<\/a> trends.<\/p>\n On February 6, Australia\u2019s trade surplus narrowed from A$6.792 billion in November to A$5.085 billion in December. Significantly, exports rose 1.1% month-on-month, down from 4.2% in November, reflecting softer overseas demand.<\/p>\n An escalation in the US-China trade war could further impact Australian trade terms. Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio of over 50%, with 20% of its workforce in trade-related jobs.<\/p>\n Given that China accounts for one-third of Aussie exports, a full-blown US-China trade war could impact Aussie exports, the economy, and the RBA rate path.<\/p>\n In December, RBA Governor Michele Bullock commented on President Trump\u2019s policies, China, and the Australian economy, stating<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cUS moves against China could affect Aussie trade terms with China, potentially impacting the Aussie economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Governor Bullock\u2019s comments suggested the need for policy easing if there is a US-China trade war. A more dovish RBA rate path would weaken Aussie dollar demand.<\/p>\n For a comprehensive analysis of AUD\/USD trends and trade data insights, visit our detailed reports here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Turning to the US session, softer US labor market data could narrow the US-Aussie interest rate differential. Rising bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate may drive the AUD\/USD pair above the 50-day EMA, bringing the $0.63623 resistance level into play.<\/p>\n Conversely, tighter US labor market conditions may sink Fed rate cut bets, potentially pulling the pair toward $0.61500 and the upper band of the descending channel.<\/p>\n Additionally, US-China tariff developments remain a risk factor. The AUD\/USD pair could break out if the US and China progress toward a trade agreement.<\/p>\nThe AUD\/USD: US Tariffs and China in Focus<\/h2>\n
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Australian Dollar Daily Chart<\/h2>\n