{"id":40608,"date":"2025-03-28T04:56:21","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T07:56:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tiproject.online\/index.php\/2025\/03\/28\/pce-report-hits-today-but-tariffs-and-fed-caution-steal-the-spotlight\/"},"modified":"2025-03-28T04:56:21","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T07:56:21","slug":"pce-report-hits-today-but-tariffs-and-fed-caution-steal-the-spotlight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tiproject.online\/index.php\/2025\/03\/28\/pce-report-hits-today-but-tariffs-and-fed-caution-steal-the-spotlight\/","title":{"rendered":"PCE Report Hits Today\u2014But Tariffs and Fed Caution Steal the Spotlight"},"content":{"rendered":"

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That\u2019s in contrast to the softer CPI numbers we saw recently, adding confusion about where inflation\u2019s really headed. With spending expected to rise 0.7% and incomes up 0.4%, the Fed may not see enough weakness to justify cutting rates anytime soon.<\/p>\n

Tariffs Could Keep Inflation Higher for Longer<\/h2>\n

The Trump administration\u2019s tariff plans are adding new layers to the inflation picture. Boston Fed\u2019s Susan Collins says a short-term spike is likely. But St. Louis Fed\u2019s Alberto Musalem isn\u2019t so sure it\u2019ll fade quickly. His team estimates the tariffs could lift inflation by over a full percentage point.<\/p>\n

Since today\u2019s data is from February\u2014before most of these tariffs were announced\u2014it may understate what\u2019s coming next. That\u2019s a key risk for anyone betting on rate cuts.<\/p>\n

Business Activity Slows Under Policy Fog<\/h2>\n

Fed officials say businesses are stalling, holding back on investment and hiring as they wait for policy clarity. Richmond Fed\u2019s Thomas Barkin described the current environment as like driving in fog with \u201czero visibility.\u201d<\/p>\n

This slowdown adds to downside risks for growth, especially if consumer spending also weakens in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Consumer Confidence Drops, Inflation Fears Climb<\/h2>\n

Consumer sentiment<\/a> likely dropped sharply in March, and inflation expectations likely rose to their highest level in over a year. That could lead households to cut back on spending\u2014which would weigh on growth and make the Fed\u2019s job even harder.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[ad_1] That\u2019s in contrast to the softer CPI numbers we saw recently, adding confusion about where inflation\u2019s really headed. With spending expected to rise 0.7% and incomes up 0.4%, the Fed may not see enough weakness to justify cutting rates anytime soon. Tariffs Could Keep Inflation Higher for Longer The Trump administration\u2019s tariff plans are adding new layers to the inflation picture. Boston Fed\u2019s Susan Collins says a short-term spike is likely. But St. Louis Fed\u2019s Alberto Musalem isn\u2019t so sure it\u2019ll fade quickly. His team estimates the tariffs could lift inflation by over a full percentage point. Since today\u2019s data is from February\u2014before most of these tariffs were announced\u2014it may understate what\u2019s coming next. That\u2019s a key risk for anyone betting on rate cuts. Business Activity Slows Under Policy Fog Fed officials say businesses are stalling, holding back on investment and hiring as they wait for policy clarity. Richmond Fed\u2019s Thomas Barkin described the current environment as like driving in fog with \u201czero visibility.\u201d This slowdown adds to downside risks for growth, especially if consumer spending also weakens in the coming months. Consumer Confidence Drops, Inflation Fears Climb Consumer sentiment likely dropped sharply in March, and inflation expectations likely rose to their highest level in over a year. That could lead households to cut back on spending\u2014which would weigh on growth and make the Fed\u2019s job even harder. [ad_2]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40609,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financas"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t