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The modest rebound comes as equity markets stabilize, but upside in crude remains capped by intensifying macro pressure. U.S.-China trade tensions escalated sharply following President Trump\u2019s call for \u201creciprocal tariffs\u201d on all imports.<\/p>\n
Beijing responded with defiance, warning it would \u201cfight to the end\u201d against U.S. pressure. The threat of a prolonged trade war between the world\u2019s top two economies has amplified fears of a global recession\u2014one that could significantly dent oil demand growth.<\/p>\n
EU officials added to the risk complex by announcing potential 25% counter-tariffs on U.S. goods, further complicating the global trade picture. ING\u2019s Warren Patterson described Tuesday\u2019s bounce as a \u201crelief rally\u201d with little conviction, pointing out that the market had already priced in a large portion of expected demand destruction.<\/p>\n
Geopolitics added another layer of complexity. President Trump hinted at direct nuclear talks with Iran, though Tehran downplayed this, saying any dialogue would remain indirect.<\/p>\n
According to RBC\u2019s Helima Croft, a successful diplomatic breakthrough could bring more Iranian barrels to market, while a breakdown risks sparking military tension\u2014either outcome could meaningfully sway supply expectations.<\/p>\n