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The next lower target is the 78.6% retracement at $3.40. However, there is a better-defined potential support zone from $3.08 to $2.98, consisting of the initial 100% target for a falling ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing beginning in August 2024. Also, within that price zone is the next lower trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, now at $3.04, and a prior swing high and symmetrical triangle breakout level of $3.02.<\/p>\n
The monthly chart (not shown) is supportive of further downside as a one-month bearish reversal triggered this month. Support from March is at $3.16 and there could be some signs of support around the price level. Moreover, another bearish monthly signal would be generated on a drop below March. A bearish monthly signal especially increases the chance that the lower potential support level noted above may be reached before the current bearish correction is complete.<\/p>\n
If natural gas ends up falling below $2.98 and staying below it, sellers may remain in charge down to the $2.77 price zone or lower. That is the 127.2% extended target for the falling ABCD pattern. A daily close below $2.98 would signal a bearish reversal of the advance that began from the August 2024 interim swing low.<\/p>\n
The late-January higher swing low at $2.99 is part of the price structure of that trend therefore a drop below that price level would violate the integrity of the uptrend. Additionally, there appears to be potential support around a long-term uptrend line (purple) originating from the April 2024 swing low. It identifies the next lower trend support area below the 200-Day MA. In general, once one trendline is broken, the next lower line becomes a potential target.<\/p>\n