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The decision added immediate downside pressure to oil markets, with both Brent and WTI falling over $1 per barrel in early trading. As the session progressed, oil futures began clawing back some losses. However, the bearish tone remains dominant given heightened supply concerns.
Demand Uncertainty Compounds Bearish Tone
Traders remain wary of the demand side of the equation. ING cited ongoing demand uncertainty driven by tariff risks and weak refined fuel consumption, particularly in Asia. Vortexa data shows a 150 million barrel build in global onshore and floating crude inventories since mid-February, reinforcing the surplus narrative.
Adding barrels into a demand-constrained market has compressed the Brent futures curve. The prompt spread narrowed to just 10 cents per barrel, down from 47 cents the previous session, and briefly dipped into contango—a bearish market structure where future prices exceed spot levels.
Forecasts Cut as Market Reassesses Fundamentals
Investment banks have revised their oil prices projections in response to OPEC+’s move. Barclays cut its 2025 Brent forecast by $4 to $66, while ING now expects Brent to average $65 this year, down from $70. Analysts at Saxo Bank noted that Saudi Arabia’s push appears tactical—meant to both punish quota violations and put pressure on U.S. shale producers.
Bearish Oil Price Outlook Persists
Technically, WTI’s failure to break below $55.30 suggests some support, but bearish momentum persists unless prices reclaim resistance at $59.67. With OPEC+ bringing more barrels online and inventories swelling, traders are bracing for further downside unless demand signals improve. The oil prices forecast remains bearish in the near term, with supply concerns outweighing any tentative signs of a rebound.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
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